31 Aug · 12:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1584
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stibor
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1535
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Rulc covers set handicap as underdog 64% (98)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H23-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-11)