31 Aug · 11:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1584
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kocvara
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1610
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🌟Kocvara stays under total as favourite 64% (36)
Fair odds · Kocvara
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.