1 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1531
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rulc
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1519
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Liska covers set handicap as underdog 65% (137)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H56-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.