4 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1447
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vorel
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1436
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Vorel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (127)
Fair odds · Vorel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H12-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.