4 Sept · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1503
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Liska
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1542
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Liska rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (77)
Fair odds · Liska
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.