5 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1564
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kozachuk
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1551
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kozachuk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H37-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.