6 Sept · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1560
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hajek
MH
🇺🇦Miroslav Hajek
ELO 1588
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 66% (129)
Fair odds · Hajek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.