6 Sept · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1485
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Populovskyi
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lipeiko
ELO 1479
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Populovskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H13-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.