6 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PO
🇺🇦Petr Orlowski
ELO 1596
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Orlowski
MH
🇺🇦Miroslav Hajek
ELO 1588
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Orlowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.