7 Sept · 08:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1390
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Semenets
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1440
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H30-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-28)