11 Sept · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Michal Snizek
ELO 1491
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Snizek
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1438
FormWWLWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Moulis covers set handicap as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Snizek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)