11 Sept · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇺🇦Anton Molochko
ELO 1780
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molochko
VV
🇺🇦Vasily Verbyany
ELO 1774
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Verbyany🌟Verbyany covers set handicap as underdog 62% (136)
Fair odds · Molochko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H110-58
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.