11 Sept · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LS
🇺🇦Lukas Svoboda
ELO 1539
FormWLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adam
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1583
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svoboda🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (74)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H11-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-7)