11 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1443
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Puk
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1438
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Puk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (31)
Fair odds · Puk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H17-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.