11 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Viacheslav Simchuk
ELO 1512
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Honcharenko
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1517
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
🌟Simchuk stays under total as underdog 67% (39)
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H31-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.