11 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇺🇦Mykola Pohorilyi
ELO 1587
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sideltsev
SS
🇺🇦Sergii Sideltsev
ELO 1594
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
⚡ Cover lean · Sideltsev
Fair odds · Sideltsev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H11-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.