11 Sept · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotiash
ELO 1530
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotiash
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1517
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Kovshun covers set handicap as underdog 62% (116)
Fair odds · Kotiash
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.