12 Sept · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Palii
ELO 1505
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maltsev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1523
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Palii🌟Palii stays under total as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.