12 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1447
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vorel
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1443
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvoracek🌟Dvoracek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (108)
Fair odds · Vorel
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.