12 Sept · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr Kolos
ELO 1418
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Serdiuk
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Serdiuk
ELO 1486
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolos🌟Kolos covers set handicap as underdog 68% (37)
Fair odds · Serdiuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~72 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+68
H2H16-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-10)