12 Sept · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1567
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Romaniak
NK
🇺🇦Nazar Kovalchuk
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Kovalchuk covers set handicap as underdog 68% (105)
Fair odds · Romaniak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.