12 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IE
🇺🇦Ivan Efimenko
ELO 1545
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Efimenko
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1533
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Efimenko stays under total as favourite 77% (13)
Fair odds · Efimenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.