12 Sept · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1523
FormLLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gil
TG
🇺🇦Taras Gil
ELO 1590
FormWLWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maltsev🌟Gil rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (55)
Fair odds · Gil
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H21-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-13)