13 Sept · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1529
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Hala
PH
🇺🇦Pavel Hala
ELO 1593
FormLLWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 66% (136)
Fair odds · Hala
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H20-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-14)