13 Sept · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kolman
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1578
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Provaznik🌟Provaznik covers set handicap as underdog 69% (75)
Fair odds · Kolman
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.