13 Sept · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VV
🇺🇦Valerii Vlasenko
ELO 1403
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vlasenko
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1376
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Vlasenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H39-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.