13 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1487
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Napirko
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kalenyk
ELO 1447
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kalenyk
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H18-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.