13 Sept · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1529
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kolman
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1578
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Merkl🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 66% (136)
Fair odds · Kolman
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H16-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-10)