13 Sept · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇺🇦Josef Chalupa
ELO 1646
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chalupa
DG
🇺🇦David Gasparovic
ELO 1607
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Gasparovic covers set handicap as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.