13 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PH
🇺🇦Pavel Hala
ELO 1593
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hala
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1578
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolman🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 69% (107)
Fair odds · Hala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H13-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.