14 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1513
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Treschetka
VS
🇺🇦Vasil Salivonchyk
ELO 1504
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Salivonchyk covers set handicap as underdog 72% (78)
Fair odds · Treschetka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H62-66
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.