14 Sept · 11:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Illia Fokin
ELO 1487
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Salivonchyk
VS
🇺🇦Vasil Salivonchyk
ELO 1504
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fokin🌟Fokin covers set handicap as underdog 69% (32)
Fair odds · Salivonchyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.