14 Sept · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1550
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rodin
OR
🇺🇦Oleksii Rodin
ELO 1590
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Rodin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.