14 Sept · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇺🇦Miroslav Hajek
ELO 1565
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Svitac
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1587
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H13-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.