15 Sept · 07:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1382
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Miroshnychenko
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lyman
ELO 1378
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Miroshnychenko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H12-56
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.