15 Sept · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1544
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Osadchyi
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1515
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H17-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.