15 Sept · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1541
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martyniuk
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1515
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.