15 Sept · 08:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1618
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derevianko
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1606
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zhyrnov
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H38-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.