15 Sept · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1587
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1646
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Adam covers set handicap as underdog 67% (99)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H30-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-24)