15 Sept · 06:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1548
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Shcherbak
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1588
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Shcherbak stays under total as favourite 62% (250)
Fair odds · Shcherbak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H38-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.