16 Sept · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇺🇦Dmitriy Belanchik
ELO 1400
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Melnik
OM
🇺🇦Orest Melnik
ELO 1420
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Belanchik stays under total as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Melnik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H8-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.