16 Sept · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1618
FormWWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stibor
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1543
FormWLLWL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 68% (252)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H9-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-3)