16 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Kaderabek
ELO 1530
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Makara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1543
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Makara
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H27-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.