16 Sept · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1469
FormWWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Maltsev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1538
FormWLLLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fashchevskyi
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H25-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)