16 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YZ
🇺🇦Yurii Zvolynskyi
ELO 1500
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zvolynskyi
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1477
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Zvolynskyi
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H47-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.