16 Sept · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VH
🇺🇦Valerii Hel
ELO 1489
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kasian
DK
🇺🇦Danylo Kasian
ELO 1518
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hel🌟Kasian rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (29)
Fair odds · Kasian
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.