17 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1490
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Honcharenko
MZ
🇺🇦Mykola Zavoloka
ELO 1476
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Zavoloka covers set handicap as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.