17 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1431
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hanacek
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1454
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorel🌟Hanacek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (134)
Fair odds · Hanacek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.