17 Sept · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇺🇦Iurii Hrekh
ELO 1585
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1595
FormWWLLL
49%
51%
🌟Pohonov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (230)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.