17 Sept · 08:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1475
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stetsenko
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kovalenko
ELO 1449
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Kovalenko stays under total as underdog 62% (74)
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 32% · 3.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.